It is found that some readers are not clear about the development trend of countries (regions) in the global semiconductor industry. Here is an introduction.
The following picture is from the IC Insights official website, which is based on the revenue of chip companies in various countries (regions), and has carried out a global share ranking.
Note that the chip design companies mentioned here are Intel, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Samsung, SK Hynix, HiSilicon, Sony, MediaTek, etc., including Fabless (factoryless, pure design) and IDM (integrated design and manufacturing) enterprise. Pure chip manufacturing companies, including TSMC, GlobalFoundries, UMC, and SMIC are not included.
It is understandable that the achievement is the brand share rankings of Apple, Samsung, Huawei, Xiaomi, OPPO, and VIVO for smartphones, and upstream foundries are not included in the calculation.
First look at the global total chip share ranking,
The United States was 52% in 2018 and rose to 55% in 2019, ranking first in the world; South Korea was 27% in 2018 and 22% in 2019, ranking second in the world; Europe was 7% in 2018, and still 7% in 2019. Ranked third in the world; Taiwan, China was 6% in 2018, and 6% in 2019, ranking fourth in the world; Japan was 7% in 2018, and dropped to 6% in 2019, ranking fifth in the world; China was 3% in 2018, 2019 It rose to 5% annually, ranking sixth in the world.
If it is made into a table, it is as follows, we are the sixth in the world in 2019.
It is very obvious that the development momentum of chips in mainland China is the strongest. The figure below can be seen very obvious. Compared with 2018 sales growth in 2019, mainland China has increased by 10%, which is the only growth. The sales of chip companies in other major regions are all negative growth.
Europe is down 2%, Taiwan is down 3%, the United States is down 9%, Japan is down 24%, and South Korea is down 32%.
Everyone feels weird now. Why is the decline in Japan and South Korea so big?
This is related to the high concentration of the semiconductor industry structure in South Korea and Japan in a few fields such as memory. I believe everyone has seen the picture below, and it also comes from IC insight. This ranking is a ranking of all companies in the semiconductor industry chain (including design , Manufacturing, packaging and testing each link) to perform a ranking, look at the top 15 in the world. Simply put, pure foundry factories such as TSMC are also included in the calculation.
Although South Korea’s chip share (calculated by sales) ranked second in the world in 2019, the output of South Korean semiconductors is mainly concentrated in the memory (DRAM memory and NAND FLASH flash memory) of Samsung and SK Hynix. Look at the top 15 in the world above. , South Korea is Samsung and Hynix, and Samsung ranked second in the world, Hynix ranked fourth in the world.
You have to say who is the third largest chip company in South Korea besides these two, but the result is that everyone looks at each other and everyone can’t tell.
We all know that storage pellets are a cyclical industry with great price fluctuations, so when prices soar, sales and profits can soar, which can make Samsung the world’s largest chip company.
But when prices fall, sales of Samsung and Hynix can also drop significantly.
The semiconductor structure of Japan is better than that of South Korea.
The largest semiconductor company in Japan is Kioxia (formerly Toshiba), which is mainly engaged in NAND FLASH flash memory. It is the counterpart of Samsung and SK Hynix, ranking 9th in the world in 2019.
Japan’s second largest semiconductor company is Sony, and its main source of revenue is its CMOS image sensor business, which ranks 11th in the world in 2019.
Japan’s third-largest semiconductor company is Renesas, whose business scope is automotive chips, which is not among the top 15 in the world above, but it is also in the top 20 in the world.
These three companies accounted for the vast majority of Japan’s semiconductor industry, especially Kioxia is the leader, so if Kioxia’s memory business declines due to market price fluctuations, it will lead to a decline in sales of the Japanese semiconductor industry.
In the field of chips, China’s main mid- to long-term catch-up rivals are the United States and South Korea.
In 2019, in terms of share, Europe is 7%, Japan is 6%, Taiwan is 6%, and China is 5%. According to the rapid development of China’s chip industry, it is expected that the share will surpass the first three regions in 2022.
At present, HiSilicon, Goodix (fingerprint recognition chip), Weir shares (a CMOS image sensor of Howe Technology), Zhaoyi Innovation, NAND FLASH of Yangtze River Storage, and DRAM of Changxin Storage have all come to the fore in their respective fields. , Has obtained a relatively large development.
Weir shares, together with Sony and Samsung, are the top three CMOS image sensors in the world. The total operating income in the first three quarters of 2020 is 13.969 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.51%; the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company is 1.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1177.75% ; Next, we will subdivide, chip companies can be divided into two types, one is self-made, that is, IDM, the world’s 10 largest IDM companies in 2019 are:
American Intel, South Korea’s Samsung, South Korea’s SK Hynix, American Micron, American Texas Instruments, Japan’s Kioxia, Japan’s Sony, STMicroelectronics, Germany’s Infineon, the Netherlands NXP.
At present, in terms of global turnover, IDM is still dominant. In 2019, the top four global chip companies are IDM companies (Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron).
The three largest chip companies in Europe are also IDM companies (STMicroelectronics, Infineon, NXP). According to the IC Insight chart at the beginning of this article, the revenue share and ranking of IDM companies in the global countries (regions) in 2019 are as follows , The United States accounted for 51% of the world, South Korea accounted for 29%, Europe and Japan each accounted for 9%.
It can be seen that the lack of IDM companies in my country is a huge shortcoming, with a global share of less than 1%.
What is not interesting enough is that IDM companies in Taiwan are not strong, with a global share of only 2%.
In terms of revenue, China’s largest semiconductor IDM company currently is Wingtech’s Anshi Semiconductor, which manufactures discrete devices such as diodes, MOSFETs, etc., with operating revenue of 10.307 billion yuan in 2019, compared to 10.431 billion yuan in the same period last year; 2019 The annual net profit was 1.258 billion yuan, compared with 1.34 billion yuan in the same period last year.
However, Nexperia was acquired from the standard parts department of NXP in Europe. In fact, it is still a European company with wafer production located in Hamburg, Germany and Manchester, UK.
Although Wingtech has won the position of chairman of Anshi, the company’s management and operation team is still in charge of the European team, which has a high degree of independence.
So it can be said that the largest IDM semiconductor factory in China is China Resources Microelectronics.
In 2019, the company achieved operating income of 5.743 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.42%; realized net profit of 401 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.68%; of course, China Resources Microelectronics also has foundry business, and the proportion is not small, but generally speaking, pure generation The factory still looks at SMIC and Hua Hong.
The second largest IDM factory in China is Hangzhou Silan Micro. In 2019, it achieved revenue of 3.11057 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.80%; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 14.532 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.47%. Of course, newly built in my country in recent years The two large-scale IDM factories of Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage have begun to increase their volume in 2020. After these two companies began mass production in 2019, 2020 is the first year that they have begun to truly gradually increase their volume.
In the future, these two will be the largest IDM factories in our country.
On July 13, 2020, Hefei Urban Construction announced that the company has recently signed a project cooperation framework agreement with Hefei Changxin Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Changxin Integration”).
Provide Changxin Integration with professional project construction services such as factory area, office area, living area, etc., and is committed to creating a first-class enterprise production, work, and living environment. Ruili Integration, a subsidiary of Changxin Integration, owns 100% of Changxin Storage, so Changxin Integration is the parent company of Changxin Storage.
Since the shareholders of Hefei Urban Construction and Changxin Integration both have Hefei Investment Group and formed a connected transaction, it disclosed that Changxin Integration’s revenue in the first quarter was 255.19 million yuan, and the net profit was a loss of 97.88 million yuan.
Changxin Integration did not say how much of this sales came from the sales of DRAM products, but according to this data, Hefei Changxin became large-scale for the first time this year. The same is true for Yangtze River Storage. It has developed rapidly this year. The ranking of Mainland China in this field will rise.
In addition, my country’s Huawei HiSilicon, I think it is very likely that it will also enter the IDM field. I have always insisted on this judgment because logically, if Huawei does not do it on its own, it will be very passive and not conducive to its own survival.
One is for design only, that is, Fabless. The five largest companies in the world in Q1 2020 are Qualcomm, Broadcom, Nvidia, MediaTek, and AMD.
But in fact, it is generally estimated that in 2020, HiSilicon’s revenue has surpassed MediaTek and ranked fourth in the world, just because it did not disclose revenue separately, but it is meaningless to say this now, because HiSilicon can’t find chip manufacturing supply for the time being. , It will gradually decline.
In addition, Apple did not include it, probably because Apple did not separately disclose the revenue of the chip business.
According to the calculation of the share of pure chip design companies, the United States in 2019 is 65%, the world’s first place, and it is almost twice the total of the rest of the world. Needless to say, the three giants of Qualcomm, Broadcom and Nvidia, in addition to AMD (super Micro Semiconductors), Xilinx (Xilinx), Marvell (Meiman Electronics), among which AMD announced on October 27, 2020 that it had acquired Xilinx for 35 billion U.S. dollars.
Then the top four pure chip design companies in the world are: Broadcom, Qualcomm, Nvidia, and AMD, all of which are American companies. In fact, Apple should be added. That is, the top five in the world are all American companies.
Taiwan’s fabless company’s global share in 2019 was 17%, ranking second in the world, and China’s mainland ranked third in the world in 2019, with a share of 15%. In contrast, the rest of the world, Europe, Japan, and South Korea’s pure The global share of chip design companies is very small, 2% in Europe, 1% in South Korea, and less than 1% in Japan.
Mainland China is expected to surpass Taiwan in 2021-2022, ranking second in the world.
In summary, in the field of chips, whether it is IDM chip companies that design and manufacture chips by themselves, Fabless chip companies that only do design, or a combination of the two, the United States is far ahead, accounting for more than 50% of the global share.
In this field, it can actually be briefly described as a super-strong situation.
After reading the market share of chip companies, let’s look at semiconductor manufacturing. This is currently my country’s biggest shortcoming in the semiconductor field, and it is also the main area that is currently stuck.
It will be clearer with the figure below. The figure below is the ranking of wafer production capacity of global semiconductor manufacturing plants in December 2019, including IDM plants and pure foundries, which are converted according to 8-inch wafers.
We can see that the world’s number one is Samsung, with a production capacity of 2.934 million pieces per month, accounting for 15% of the world. The second is TSMC, with a production capacity of 2.439 million pieces per month, accounting for 12.8% of the world. The world’s third is Micron with a production capacity of 1.685 million. Films per month, accounting for 9.4% of the world’s fourth place is SK Hynix, with a production capacity of 1.63 million per month, accounting for 8.9% of the world’s fifth is Kioxia, with a production capacity of 1.361 million per month, accounting for 7.2% of the world’s level. From a point of view, Samsung is the world’s largest chip manufacturer, and TSMC is second.
But why are we accustomed to saying that TSMC is the world’s number one, because in general, when we say semiconductor manufacturing plants, we refer to pure foundries.
For example, IDM chip companies, including Intel, Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, Kioxia, etc., have their own factories, and generally do not hand over chips to foundries for production. However, there are a large number of chip companies in the market that do not have their own factories, called fabless, so they have to be handed over to foundries for production.
Let’s take a look at the picture below, from Topu Industrial Research Institute,
Global chip foundry revenue ranking in Q3 2020,
TSMC ranks first in the world, with a share of 53.9%;
Samsung is second in the world, with a share of 17.4%
GLOBALFOUNDRIES is third in the world, with a share of 7%;
UMC is fourth in the world, with a share of 7%
SMIC is fifth in the world, with a share of 4.5%
In the chip foundry ranking, Samsung only calculates the revenue of foundry business + system LSI (large scale integration) business. Does not calculate the revenue of its memory department.
This System LSI is described on Samsung’s official website: System LSI Business offers a full range of portfolio for mobile industry including mobile processor, image sensor, Bio-processor, security and Display solution. Simply put, it is a department that provides chips for mobile Electronic products such as Samsung mobile phone processors, image sensors, biochip processors, and display driver chips.
In other words, in the field of chip foundry, Taiwan, with TSMC as the core, is a well-deserved king, accounting for more than half of the global chip foundry market. fabless Huawei, because it does not have its own chip manufacturing plant, must also rely on chip generation. The factory comes to produce chips.
Well, we can make a summary,
In terms of chip share,
The United States is undoubtedly the strongest and is leading the way in new technologies. American chip companies, Broadcom, Qualcomm, Intel, AMD, Apple, Nvidia, Texas Instruments, it seems that every one of them seems invincible. Feel.
In terms of chip share, South Korea ranks second in the world in terms of total share due to its extremely high global share in memory.
The rest of the world, mainland China, Taiwan, Europe, and Japan will have a share of 5%-7% in 2019. Therefore, China will soon stand out and will rank third in the world by 2023.
Of course, it is estimated that until 2025, we should still be the third in the world, second only to the United States and South Korea. Between 2025 and 2030, we will surpass South Korea and become the second in the world. After 2030, it will be possible to surpass the United States.
In the field of chip manufacturing, if you look at the production capacity ranking of the region where the company’s headquarters is located, South Korea is the world’s first due to the huge production capacity of Samsung and SK Hynix, and my country’s Taiwan (TSMC, UMC, etc.) is the second in the world.
However, because the two major Korean factories put a large amount of memory business in China for production, Samsung’s Xi’an plant and Hynix’s Wuxi plant have huge production capacity; in contrast, due to the Taiwan authorities’ investment in semiconductor manufacturing in the mainland Take precautions, TSMC’s Nanjing and Shanghai plants in mainland China have very small production capacity, and they are mainly produced in Taiwan.
Therefore, if you look at the geographic location of the factory, Taiwan is the world’s largest semiconductor production base. The figure below is the global wafer production capacity distribution (according to geographical location) announced by IC insight in December 2019. Taiwan, China is the world’s first, accounting for 21.6%;
South Korea is second in the world, accounting for 20.9%.
Japan is third in the world, accounting for 16%
Mainland China is fourth in the world, accounting for 13.9%
The United States is fifth in the world, accounting for 12.8%
Europe is sixth in the world, accounting for 5.8%
The rest of the world accounts for 9.0%
Note that the chip production capacity of mainland China has surpassed that of the United States (but the reason is that many of the production capacity of mainland China belong to foreign factories). In the field of manufacturing, China is also making rapid progress.
So I made a graph to compare the global wafer capacity changes from December 2015 to December 2019, using IC Insight data.
From 2015 to 2019, the global share of wafer production capacity in Mainland China increased from 9.7% to 13.9%, an increase of 4.2 percentage points. In 2019, it ranked fourth in the world, second only to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan.
In 2015-2019, among the top six players in global wafer production capacity,
The share of wafer production capacity in North America, Europe, and Japan all showed a downward trend. Mainland China and South Korea increased by 4.2% and 0.4% respectively, while Taiwan was flat. Of course, China had the fastest increase.
Obviously, China’s wafer production capacity will surpass Japan as soon as 2022-2023 and become the world’s third largest. But we have to pay attention, this wafer production capacity includes the production capacity of foreign-funded semiconductor manufacturing plants in China.
Of course, someone has asked, in 2019, China’s total wafer capacity share is 13.9% of the world, so what about China’s own factories? How much can share? It makes more sense to see this.
The following picture is from the China Semiconductor Industry Association. In 2019, five of the top ten semiconductor manufacturing plants in China are foreign-invested. The top two are Samsung (Xi’an) and Intel Dalian Plant, both of which are larger than SMIC.
Three of the top four are foreign-funded factories, especially Samsung’s Xi’an factory, which is continuously expanding production and is one of the largest memory factories in the world. It is easy to see that most of the production capacity in mainland China comes from foreign-funded factories, our local factories The global share of production capacity is estimated to be less than 5%.
Therefore, by 2025, the global capacity share of our local factories is estimated to surpass that of Europe (actually estimated to surpass before 2023), ranking fifth in the world after Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, and the United States.
Okay, let’s briefly summarize,
1: In the field of chip company share, the United States is the absolute hegemon, accounting for more than 50% of the global share.
In 2019, our global share of 5%, ranking sixth in the world, is expected to surpass Japan, Europe and Taiwan in three years, and become the third in the world, second only to the United States and South Korea.
Surpassing South Korea is expected to be 2025-2030.
2: In the field of chip manufacturing plants, in 2019, the share of global production capacity of Chinese mainland companies is less than 5%. By 2025, it is expected that the production capacity of Chinese mainland companies will be ranked fifth in the world by that time, surpassing Europe and still lagging behind Taiwan, China. South Korea, Japan, the United States, but the distance will be closer.
Look at the picture below, I posted earlier in this article, South Korea’s Samsung, Taiwan’s TSMC, and other giants with a global production capacity of more than 10%. The United States alone accounts for 9.4% of the world’s production capacity. There is also Texas Instruments and Intel. Waiting for the factory.
Japan alone accounts for 7.2% of the global production capacity of Kioxia, as well as Sony and Renesas.
Therefore, our local manufacturing plant will have less than 5% of the global production capacity in 2019. Even if it doubles in five years, it will still be difficult to catch up with Taiwan, South Korea, the United States, and Japan.
This is still calculated in terms of production capacity, and it is estimated that my country will be lower in terms of amount, because of the backwardness in manufacturing process and technology.
We are able to complete the localization of 28nm within three years, which is already a great improvement, so let’s not talk about catching up with the world’s leading issue. We need to make up too many lessons in the field of semiconductor manufacturing, not too few.
What’s more deadly is that my country’s four leading players in the semiconductor manufacturing field, SMIC, Huahong, Yangtze River Storage, and Changxin Storage. The DRAM technology is complicated and it takes time to accumulate. The Yangtze River Storage is currently relatively stable, but the scale is still too small.
Therefore, we need more powerful players to enter the game. I still have that judgment. Huawei needs to enter the IDM field and manufacture its own chips. I think Huawei will eventually do the same. The reason is simple. The existing domestic foundries SMIC and Huahong are both It can’t play well, and it can’t support Huawei to regain the lead in the future.
Finally, after three years of hard work, our chip share will rise to the third place in the world by 2023, and the manufacturing capacity of our local chip factory may exceed Europe by 2023, next to Taiwan, South Korea, and the United States. Japan ranks fifth in the world (of course it is expected to be in this ranking by 2025), but the greater significance lies in the localization of 28nm or the establishment of beautification production lines. Once this goal is achieved, I think it is more meaningful than the increase in production capacity. big.